Well, you are correct, but that is speculation. So, if we speculate, then let’s do it properly.
Assuming that a downwards trend will continue throughout global markets, one might say that many people will likely flip the keyboard upon arrival - paying rent and food might end up being more important than a nice keyboard when it suddenly becomes more complicated to make ends meet.
While the dollar will likely continue to decrease in value, the nominal price for which it’ll be getting sold is unlikely to increase by the same amount in addition to the aftermarket markup price. Obviously mechmarket has notoriously inflated prices. However, the current trend on mechmarket, averaged by a vast range of other, already existing RAMA products, shows, that even BNIB items today go for more or less the same price (and sometimes even below) what RAMA themselves initially sold them for - if you factor in inflation.
Putting this aside for a moment, let’s continue the speculation and assume that we would allocate the exact amount of the M60-B (including shipping) right now and invest it into something that at least holds this value (meaning, increases proportionally to the dollars inflation) or ideally yields more value over the next approx. 1 year, which I would assume is the time that it’ll take for BNIB M60-Bs to hit mechmarket. Even at “only” about 10% (“only”, since we’re not going into any high risk assets like crypto), our ~$600 would not only have hedged for the current inflation but also generated a bit of a return, netting us $660 after that one year.
Continuing where we left of, when BNIB M60-Bs will hit mechmarket, we could likely scoop up the items at no additional cost. Taking in consideration that, with higher risk, higher yields could be achieved, we might even end up paying less for the keyboard when purchased on the aftermarket. If we also factor in a global economic downturn and a high market saturation of BNIB items as soon as it ships, which are both factors that will drive down the prices, we might end up paying significantly less for the keyboard after all.
So unless people will hold on to their orders no matter what and unless you’d want a super-specific configuration that you will likely have a very hard time finding on the aftermarket, I’d suggest that putting the money into a different asset and purchasing the board on the aftermarket could make more sense (financially) than actually joining this groupbuy. That is also very much true for GMK keycaps, considering that delivery times are now past 2 years, allowing us to get a potentially higher total yield.
// edit: Just to clarify, I’m not saying that it’s a bad idea to put the money upfront and join the group buy. All I’m saying is that, while many folks on the aftermarket think they’re great businessmen, that is rarely the case and everyone who intentionally missed out on a GB might have the chance to actually benefit from the aftermarket when played right.